DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z MON 03/02 - 06Z TUE 04/02 2003
ISSUED: 02/02 23:34Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN EUROPE AND THE SOUTHERN AEGEAN SEA REGION

SYNOPSIS

THERE IS A WESTNORTHWESTERLY JET WITH ITS EXIT REGION OVER WEST CENTRAL EUROPE. A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM THE NORTH SEA TO THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN AREA WILL FROM DURING THE PERIOD, WITH AFOREMENTIONED JET ON ITS WESTERN FLANK VEERING SOMEWHAT. A COMPLEX SURFACE CYCLONE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTH SEA. A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE CYCLONE WILL GIVE RISE TO SCATTERED WINTRY SHOWERS, SOME OF THEM THUNDERY. SOME MAY BE CLUSTERED NEAR SURFACE TROUGHS. INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER FRANCE LATER IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES, SO THAT SOME THUNDER MAY OCCUR OVER FRANCE AS WELL. BEHIND A DISTURBANCE THE AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN IS GRADUALLY STABILIZING. ONGOING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SUBSIDE FROM THE WEST.

DISCUSSION

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